Jets receive:
Aaron Rodgers
2023 1.15 (1050 draft points)
2023 5.170 (28)
Total draft points acquired: 1078
Packers receive:
2023 1.13 (1150)
2023 1.42 (480)
2023 6.207 (9)
Conditional 2024 second round pick (420-1000)
Total draft points acquired: 2639
CFCP projected this trade would end up being Rodgers in exchange for 2023 1.42 and a 2024 conditional third that would turn into a second if the Jets reached the playoffs this season and a first if they made the Super Bowl.
This deal is considerably better than that for Green Bay, and considerably worse for the NYJ.
Green Bay is losing a HOF QB, but that was always going to be the case, irrespective of a trade with the Jets. Rodgers was done with the Packers, and the Packers all but declared outright that they were moving on from Rodgers.
The Packers move up two spots in April’s draft, putting them in a better position to land Jaxon Smith-Njigba, the near-consensus top WR available, or a top-flight OT such as Darnell Wright (who I had mocked to the Jets at 13). They trade down from 5.170 to 6.207, which is negligible here.
The mid-second round pick Green Bay is getting from the Jets is an extremely valuable one. Selections just outside of Round 1 can provide elite talent at a lower price. The Packers will likely miss out on one of the two TEs (Dalton Kincaid and Michael Mayer, both of whom I have going in Round 1) but should be able to grab high-level EDGE (Isaiah Foskey, B.J. Ojulari, Felix Anudike-Uzomah, and Tuli Tuipulotu could be options) or a solid offensive lineman. (TE Darnell Washington should also be there, but he might still be available in Round 3 or even Round 4.)
Of course, the jewel of this trade for Green Bay is the conditional 2024 second-round pick. That pick becomes a first rounder if Rodgers plays at least 65% of offensive snaps this season, a benchmark he will undoubtedly reach barring injury.
The Jets get their QB, finally, but at a very high price. The pick swap probably takes the Jets out of the running for a desirable OL (the Packers and Jets, both of whom need OL help, now pick ahead of them). They do still have a second round pick (2.43), but they’ve conceded next year’s first round selection to the Packers for a 39-year-old QB who might retire in 2024. Their best move at this point is probably to trade down with a QB-needy team in the first round (perhaps TB or MIN) to acquire more capital. This would be dependent upon there still being a desirable QB on the board at pick 15.
The trade numbers indicate that the Jets value Rodgers at around the 6th overall pick (~1600) in April’s draft. This seems high for a one- or two-year mercenary.
The pick swap seems like overkill, and the conditional pick should have been contingent upon the Jets’ performance this coming season, not upon Rodgers’ availability. (An availability clause would be redundant in conjunction with a performance condition, since an unavailable Rodgers would mean unavailable team performance.)
Again, we were projecting the Jets to trade 1.42 and a conditional 2024 third that would have become a second if the Jets made the playoffs and a first if the Jets made the Super Bowl. Note that while without Rodgers the Jets will not make the Super Bowl, that does not entail that with Rodgers they will.
I like this trade a lot for Green Bay. Losing a HOF QB prevents the Packers from getting an “A” grade, but given their current relationship with Rodgers this trade is about the best they could have anticipated. Jordan Love hasn’t showed much yet, but he hasn’t had the chance.
Meanwhile, the Jets are giving up huge amount for a 39-year-old QB who is possibly gone next year and almost certainly gone in 2025. Still, they got Aaron Rodgers, who is just over a year out from winning his second consecutive MVP, and the roster around him is much stronger than anything the Jets have had in some time.
Grade for the Packers: A-
Grade for the Jets: C+
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