2023 NFL Mock Draft | Round 1

“Haha! The Redskins swoop in and steal Joey Porter, Jr. right out from under the noses of Pittsburgh, when just last year the Steelers said they would never ever again pass on a first round player from Pennsylvania, or something like that is what someone with the Steelers said at some point recently, and not only that but this guy’s dad used to be ON THEIR TEAM! Haha, take that, Steelers over there in a different conference who we have to play once every four years!” That’s a rough summary of what every mock drafter who has the Redskins taking Porter here will write. (Well, other than the “Redskins” part. None of them will type “Redskins”. Except for Walt [www.walterfootball.com; @walterfootball]. Walt will type Redskins. That guy gets it.)

At any rate, I did not mock Porter here to spite the Steelers. The Redskins really need secondary help, and Porter is the next DB on my big board. He’s tall with good to great speed. He put up 17 reps at the combine. Oh, and he broke up 9 passes last season and held opposing QBs to a rating of under 64 last season, which I mention in case those sorts of numbers are more your style. As with most elite CBs, his college career INT numbers were low, because no one wanted to throw at him. He could stand to put on some mass and cut back on his flags, but those are pretty easy fixes in the NFL.

(Also, that webmaster I spoke so highly of one spot above this? Already fired. Noticed he used the Commanders logo like one second after I was finished with the Jets.)

The Steelers do still land a CB here at Pick 17 in Emmanuel Forbes, despite his having played college ball at Mississippi State, a campus so far from Heinz Field that it has a different time zone. The Steelers, like Minnesota, really do need a CB. They also, like Minnesota, need a wide receiver. But with three of the top CBs gone compared to just one WR, scarcity breaks the tie. There is a drop-off after the top four WRs in this class, none of whom I have going to Pittsburgh, but there’s good second-round WR talent this year, too, and the Steelers pick twice in that frame. I could have gone one of several different ways for Pittsburgh here. Kelee Ringo, Deonte Banks, Cam Smith, and Julius Brents were also considered. I like Forbes’ defense against the run. That coupled with his burner speed and ability to get up for the ball make him a solid pick in the mid-first round.

I might have let Robinson slip too far. It’s true that NFL teams do not value RBs as they did even a decade ago, and definitely don’t value them as much as they did 20 years back. It’s a passing league, more than ever, and while QBs have always been lopsidedly important simply due to the nature of the forward-pass game, they are prioritized far above RBs now, and the value of WRs and pass-catching TEs has skyrocketed. (There will be a TE taken in this round, I promise.) Data shows that the peak age for a RB in the NFL is, believe it or not, 24.5. The tend to be out the league quickly, and when they do stick around, they generally aren’t effective. That’s why Bijan Robinson, who I suggested earlier was the best player in the draft, falls to the Lions at Pick 18. Teams have learned not to spend early picks on running backs because doing so simply doesn’t provide an adequate return.

Except that last sentence isn’t true. It’s said and written about a lot, but it’s false.

First round running backs can provide a phenomenal return. Elliott did. Gurley did. Jacobs is. What does not provide a phenomenal return, or usually even a passable one, is re-signing early RB picks. The Cowboys knew this when they franchised Pollard and let Elliott walk. The Giants knew this when they signed Daniel Jones a big long-term contract and franchised Saquon Barkley. And the Raiders knew it when after Jacobs had a league-leading year at the position they franchised him, too, rather than giving him something more substantial.

That RBs peak so young is precisely a reason to get the great ones upfront. I wasn’t going to give the Lions Robinson at Pick 6, but I easily could have and felt ok about it. And there were a handful of other teams between there and here that I also could have reasonably mocked Robinson to, I simply didn’t because most of them — Philadelphia being the main exception — don’t have the requisite surrounding player infrastructure in place to utilize Robinson effectively enough soon enough. The Lions have a lot of weak spots, but their offensive line really isn’t one of them. They do have Swift already, but the guy can’t stay healthy, and The Greatest Touchdowner Ever, Jamaal Williams, has moved on. I’m sure Detroit can accommodate a dual-threat RB with 4,215 yards and 41 TDs from scrimmage across three years in college.

While I might have allowed Robinson to fall too far, I definitely allowed Myles Murphy to fall too far. Murphy played three years at Clemson, amassing 116 total tackles, 36 of those for a loss; 18.5 sacks; and 6 forced fumbles. He’s worthy of a top 10 pick, and could have gone to the Eagles at 10, if not even before that. Once I hit pick 10, though, and Murphy was still on the board, I made a simple decision: I gave the Eagles a shiny LB in a draft that is has very little LB talent. (Also, I do give Philly a DT at pick 30. Would Smith have been available then? I doubt it. Too shiny. But maybe.) That really is my only justification. And after 10 I was always going to have Murphy fall this far. I don’t see another team at 11-18 who takes an EDGE over their other positions of need. Yes, drafting purely for need is a terrible idea, but I don’t think I made any real reaches with those other picks, either. I want to hear comments on all of my picks, but especially in this round on Murphy and Nolan. One thing I could do is swap Murphy with Nolan. Less controversial, less fun, but more sane. It wouldn’t change any of the picks I made in between, either. But I’m not going to do that. I’d need to rewrite the whole Richardson part, and I’m so over that guy.

Seattle’s up again. I DID give them a real EDGE in the top 10, so no need for that at 20. The Seahawks desperately need a third WR, unless they plan on rolling out The Eskimo. (I made up that nickname one second ago. “Dee Eskimo” — even better, or even worse? Can’t decide.) Zay Flowers is only the second WR to come off the board. There aren’t that many teams in first-round need of one. Smith-Njigba went to the Packers at 13. That left Flowers, Quentin Johnston, and Jordan Addison.

For their college careers, Johnston’s yards per reception dwarf (no pun, I wrote the short stuff after that) Flowers’, but Flowers has significantly more experience and much better overall production despite inferior quarterbacking. Flowers had less competition for catches than Johnston did, but 2,715 yards and 26 TDs over the past three years looks pretty good. He’s very undersized at just 5’9″ 182 pounds, and will need to prove that he can be more than a slot receiver in the NFL. Seattle doesn’t need an X or a Y right now, though, so they can monitor how he develops.

Addison is also small. He’s two inches taller than Flowers, but weighs even less. Flowers justifies his slightness with great speed; Addison does not. Plus, I hate the name Jordan. I also hate BC, but not as much. So I like Flowers for the Seahawks.

Ok, what if I put Nolan Smith here, move Van Ness to 19, and Myles to 10? Then everyone can be happier. Except Smith, probably. The argument I make for Van Ness this low is the same I made for Murphy at 19. Smith is a LB, Van Ness is a DL. The use of the term “EDGE” that has become so popular recently confuses things a bit. LB and DL are, in fact, different positions. Sure, an EDGE will often line up in a hybrid spot of some sort, and their distinguishing job feature is to get to the QB. But they have separate roles otherwise. It’s strange that this isn’t discussed much anymore, especially since most kids are coming out of a 4-3 in college and many are thrown into a 3-4 in the NFL. We just saw EDGE now, though. We should put a stop to that, and I will start during next off-season probably. Van Ness is a fine pick this late in Round 1, unlike Murphy who should have gone much earlier. While his measurables aren’t as shiny as Nolan’s, they are still damn good. He’s a DL — sorry, EDGE — an EDGE who runs a 4.58 40, though he’s quite light at 272 pounds. He’s tall, agile, and overall a great athlete. Van Ness put up decent numbers at Iowa (70 total tackles, 19 for a loss, and 13 sacks). He’s a bit inexperienced, though, with 26 games in 3 years (he did not play in 2020). He could also stand to wrap up a bit better. His nickname in college was Hercules, which should tell you something about his build. (It doesn’t tell my former webmaster anything at all – the guy doesn’t know Latin.) I’m honestly not sure how Van Ness managed to put up so little weight at the combine (17 bench reps) but you could never tell from his game film, in which he just runs over everyone.

I mentioned Forbes’ speed, great defense against the run, and ability to get up for the ball when I mocked him to the Steelers. Deonte Banks possesses of that, too, and more so than Forbes does. Banks runs a 4.35 40, and his vertical at the combine was an insane 42 inches. He has good CB height at 6’0″, but what could hold him back are his relatively short arms, which are under 32″. The jumping ability mitigates some of that, but length isn’t just for going up, it’s for going in with your hands. He does have lunging out under control, though, with his 99th percentile broad jump of 136″. In four years with the Terrapins, Banks had 83 total tackles and 11 passes defended. He had just two picks, in part because of the length issues. He will also need some coaching up to fix his coverage discipline, but if there’s one place he can find that it’s in Baltimore. Banks will fit nicely with the Ravens, who need cornerback help as they try to bolster their declining defense. Maryland is also much closer to Pittsburgh than Mississippi. So, Haha, Steelers — and this time it matters because the Ravens are your rivals!

Addison becomes the third WR taken in Round 1. It seems strange to say that the Vikings need WR help when they have the best one in the league, but all they have after Justin Jefferson are K.J. Osborn, who’s really more of a 3, and Jalen Reagor, who they received for a 7th round pick. As I wrote above when discussing Zay Flowers, Addison is small and not particularly fast. He also suffers from Nelson Agholor’s Disease. Still, he put up great numbers at Pitt and very good ones at USC, with 3,134 total receiving yards on 219 receptions with 29 TDs. He added 20 rushes for 147 yards and another score for good measure. Despite the drops, Addison has excellent hands. He just needs to concentrate more when using them, and also to use them more overall rather than letting the ball hit his chest. These are teachable skills.

The Jaguars are in pretty good shape. Trevor Lawrence is ascending, they made the playoff last season, and their roster is well constructed. I quite honestly paged back through my notes rather than forward as I was putting this writeup together because still in my brain that’s where Jacksonville belongs. (I also just typed “Jaxonville” by mistake, because half the time I’m reading or writing JAX rather than the actual city name.) Their primary needs are in the secondary and at IOL. Interior linemen are at a premium in this draft, so I’ll give Jaxonville the best of the lot in the first round. (No, P-Sko doesn’t count.) O’Cyrus Torrence is an outstanding guard and an elite run blocker, a skill the Jaguars can definitely use with Travis Etienne having missed his entire rookie season with an injury. He is also an excellent pass blocker. Torrence is a large guy at 6’5″ and 330 pounds. He spent three years at Louisiana before transferring to the Gators after his 2021 season. Across those four years Torrence played almost 3,100 snaps and conceded just 24 hurries, one QB hit, and zero sacks. He’s not particularly quick, and needs to make his blocks at the point of attack. Charlie Campbell reports that teams have complained about Torrence’s conditioning, “saying he has a terrible body”. His combine performance was also poor. Nevertheless, I don’t see Torrence making it out of the first round.

The last of the four Round 1 wide receivers comes off at 25. Really, Quentin Johnston could have been the second one taken. As I’ve mentioned a couple of times now, 2-3-4 was Johnston-Addison-Flowers in some order (except it was the order opposite to 2-3-4). The players are that close on my board. Johnston played three years for TCU and finished with 115 receptions for 2190 yards (19 YPC) and 14 touchdowns. He possesses near ideal WR size at 6’3″ 208 pounds. He has some drop issues, just as Addison does, and, like Addison these drops are largely due to concentration. His hands themselves are excellent. Johnston didn’t blow up in his 2022 season as many had hoped he would. His numbers were good – 60 receptions for 1,069 yards (17.8) and 6 TDs, but more was expected from him after he put up 33-634(19.2)-6 in just 8 games the year before. Despite his size, his blocking needs work, which is something he can learn if he’s willing. Johnston is not overly fast. These are the reason I have him as the 4th WR selected. Still, he’s a prototypical build, and the Giants will be thrilled to grab him in the first round if he can build on previous years. They are a team in urgent need of a WR. Hodgins and Slayton are insufficient, and no team should need to suffer running out Parris Campbell in 2023.

I told you there were tight ends in this draft. In fact, there are two in this round, and a third in the next. After that, though, it’s going to be a long wait before we see another. This was meant to be an excellent draft for early TEs. I had Dalton Kincaid going 15th to Green Bay prior to the Rodgers trade. In that case, Michael Mayer would have been here. I had two more TEs mocked in the second round a month ago. Neither of them makes the cut there now. I’ll provide more details on why when New TE #3 does come off the board. As for Dallas and Kincaid, the pick here is pretty simple. After losing Dalton Schultz, the Cowboys desperately need a TE more than any other team other than maybe the Packers, the Bengals, and the Lions. In particular they need a receiving TE, and Kincaid has that. Kincaid broke out in his third season at Utah with 70 receptions for 890 yards and 8 touchdowns. For his college career he totaled 107-1,414(13.2)-16. He is, however, not a good blocker. Some question whether he was even really a TE, since he played largely out of the slot. He’s also an older player — he will turn 24 early into next season. I don’t think any of this will matter a whole lot to the Cowboys, though, and I can’t see them passing on him here. Whether it ends up mattering for the Cowboys is a different question.

I’m higher on Steve Avilia than most. Not Chris Nolan high on him, but high. And I like him a lot for Buffalo. The Bills have an excellent roster. Their weakest point might be the interior line. Avilia can play at center or at guard. He moved back at forth at both positions. In 2022 he started at guard, where he excelled, allowing zero sacks and only 8 hurries. The year prior he played center, where he allowed just 2 sacks and 11 hurries. in 2019 he was at guard and gave up only 2 sacks and six hurries. His run blocking is particularly outstanding, as he progresses well to the second level. He could use more quickness in pass protection at the NFL level. He’s generally projected to go in the late second round, but as I said, I really like the player and I like the fit with the Bills. Avilia isn’t quite on Torrence’s level, but he should be an immediate starter for Buffalo.

The Bengals take the second TE off the board at Pick 28. Michael Mayer’s receiving numbers are in many ways better than Kincaid’s. At Notre Dame in 2022 Mayer caught 67 passes for 809 yards and 9 touchdowns. Over three years he amassed a 180-2,099-18 stat line. I have Mayer lower than Kincaid for at least three reasons. One, Mayer was not as efficient as Dalton. While Dalton averaged over 13 yards per reception, Mayer averaged just 11.7 (still a solid number for a TE). Two, Mayer is limited as an athlete. Kincaid has conditioning issues, but he’s much more gifted. He did not test well at the combine, especially during his jumping exercises, which could be problematic for a pass catching TE in the NFL. Three, while Kincaid made huge strides from 2001 to 2002, Mayer’s production stagnated. The 2022 stat line from above was 71-840-7 in 2021. This suggests that Mayer’s potential as a receiver might be maxed out. That said, Mayer is an elite blocker. Not just compared to Kincaid, which would be to say nothing at all significant, but compared to every other TE prospect. Mayer is the best blocking TE in the 2023 draft class. He will be a welcome upgrade over Irv Smith and Drew Sample in Cincinnati.

I said that I probably allowed Bijan Robinson to fall to far in the draft. At Pick 29, I might be reaching a bit for Jahmyr Gibbs. All of the same reasons for and against (mostly against) buying into the idea that Round 1 running backs are a bad draft investment that I mentioned in the Robinson writeup apply here to Gibbs. Gibb’s numbers as both a runner and as a receiver are excellent. Over three years, Gibbs rushed 383 times for 2,132 yards and 15 touchdowns. He caught 103 passes for another 1,212 yards and 8 touchdowns. His rushing numbers improved each season, from 89-460(5.2)-4 in 2020, to 143-746(5.2)-4 in 2021, then to 151-926(6.1)-7 in 2022. Gibbs is young (he just turned 21), especially for a three year player. He’s wickedly fast (4.36 40), and he looked good at the combines, though his vertical was well below average. He is not a good blocker, perhaps due to his size (5’9″ 197 pounds) but he is a willing one, which is important. Gibbs is a true dual-threat RB. Some see him as an early Day 2 selection, but I’m giving him to New Orleans in Round 1, since they need a real contingency plan for Alvin Kamara, who should miss a bunch of time to suspension this season and might never play in the league again.

The Eagles get their unshiny DT here at Pick 30. I wasn’t a huge fan of Calijah Kancey’s as a first round prospect. For the past few weeks I had him mocked variously from the mid- to late-second round. Some people I trust convinced me otherwise recently, though, so I have him slotted in to the Eagles at the end of the Round 1. I might have mentioned earlier that I have EDGE LB Nolan Smith going to Philadelphia at #10. Here they continue to replenish their depleted front seven with a pure defensive lineman. Kancey. Kancey is definitely on the smaller side for a DL at 6’0″, but he’s very fast and agile. His numbers are impressive. Over three years at Pittsburgh, Kancey played in 36 games and recorded 63 tackles, 111 pressures, 64 hurries, and 19 sacks. He improved with each season, finishing 2022 with 47 pressures, 30 hurries, 9 QB hits, and 8 sacks. I said that Kancey is a pure DL, but he’s not a pure DT. He lined up at nose tackle for a quarter of his college snaps, something he won’t be able to do in Philadelphia. Kancey’s largest downsize is his aforementioned size. He’ll need to avoid getting swallowed up by gigantic NFL offensive linemen. Perhaps a big reason I was hesitant to buy in to Kancey is the constant comparisons you hear between him and Aaron Donald. College-to-pro comparisons are irritating in general and are usually also meaningless, but they are even more grating when they really are uncanny as they are in this case, at least superficially.

Kansas City picks here, and then not again for a very long 32 slots. I wanted to go one of two ways with their first round selection: Offensive tackle, or defensive end. Tackle might seem a weird choice given that the Chiefs just signed Jawaan Taylor, but recall that they gave up a pretty important offensive lineman in the process. I don’t like Harrison as much as I like the other tackles from the first round (I know that’s clear given that I have Harrison as the final pick of the round, but the talent gulf between them to me is larger that the space between picks indicates). Still, I like the player here for Kansas City. Harrison allowed just 4 sacks in over 1,850 snaps across three years at Oklahoma. He has experience at right tackle as well as left, and he will certainly be playing right for the Chiefs. Unsurprisingly he’s an eager run blocker, and he’s also an outstanding pass blocker. The biggest knock on Harrison across scouting reports is a perceived lack of toughness. You know what, I might have just talked myself out of Harrison to Kansas City. What they really need is a bruising right tackle. The problem is, I’m not sure if they’ll be able to find one at the end of the second round, and I’m not sure it’s worth it for them to take him in the first. I have…one hour before I start round 2 writeups. Let’s see if I change my mind.

UPDATE: I’m leaving this pick. There’s no reason the Chiefs should pass on a better talent to fill the same position only because the fit isn’t quite right. Kansas City will work out a spot for Harrison, who is a better player than I was giving him credit for.