Originally posted April 27, 2023.
Last updated April 29, 2023 19:47 ET.
This article is complete.
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Day 1
8:30 PM — The Panthers unsurprisingly select Bryce Young first overall.
8:31 PM — Houston does decide to take a QB and goes with C.J. Stroud. This was the right move.
8:33 PM — Houston trades up with Arizona to #3! Crazy. Their war room looks thrilled. Let’s see what the compensation is.
8:35 PM — Houston selects Will Anderson at 3. I had them taking him at 2, as did a bunch of other people. Still no HOU-ARI trade details. Colts up next. I’m still thinking Levis, but maybe they will in fact go with Richardson.
8:37 PM — Here’s what I had the Cardinals doing with pick 3:
Arizona receives:
Pick 11 (1250 draft points)
Pick 41 (490)
2024 1st round (1000)
2024 2nd round (420)
2025 4th round (70)
Total draft points: 3230
Tennessee receives:
Pick 3 (2200)
Total draft points: 2200
Now they will be trading down to 12 instead of 11, but the pick is less valuable without Stroud there.
8:40 PM — The Colts went with Richardson. I don’t like it at all. Levis was the correct pick here. I wonder where he will fall to now. Maybe even Seattle will get involved. Minnesota?Tampa Bay holds their breath I’m sure.
8:42 PM — These are the reported details of the Arizona-Houston trade:
CARDS GET: 12, 33, 1st in 2024, 3rd in 2024
TEXANS GET: Pick 3, 105
I’ve heard that Hopkins might be involved as well, though.
8:43 PM — I’ll do the trade value calculus for that deal once the details are certain.
8:49 PM — The Seahawks go CB and take Witherspoon. I like this pick a lot, though it surprises me a bit with Carter and Wilson still on the board.
8:54 — I should have had the Patriots trading down. Maybe with the Saints. I hope they do – maybe the Jets can get Wright.
8:57 — The Cardinals already received too little for pick 3. Now I’m learning they lost more capital to settle a tampering dispute with Philly.
Eagles receive:
Pick 66
Cardinals receive:
Pick 93
2024 5th
8:59 — Now the Cardinals are trading back up to 6? And they take Paris Johnson? This one is shocking. Waiting on the trade details for this move as well.
9:05 — The Raiders take Tyree Wilson at 7. This makes sense. I had them going OL (Skoronski, not Johnson) but this is a great pick.
9:11 — The Cardinals ended up losing 98 draft points, or the equivalent of pic 104 in this year’s draft, to settle the tampering issue with the Eagles.
9:14 — The Falcons take Bijan Robinson with pick 8. So much for him slipping all the way to 18. They just got the best player in the draft.
I think I heard that the Bears have traded down from 9, too.
9:16 — I guess the Lions didn’t want Bijan after all. Still so many OL left on the board. And Carter and Gonzalez are still there, too.
9:20 — The Eagles trade up from 10 to 9 to take the best defensive player in the draft in Jalen Carter. I had him at 8 to Atlanta.
9:21 — Now the Bears are at 10. Who’s up? Gonzalez? And who were the Eagles “jumping”? Probably pretty much everyone, since he refuses to talk to anyone who would take him outside the top 10.
9:24 — Carter remains a dangerous pick. As I said in my mock, not because of his driving incident, but because of his condition and dedication. He was a disaster at his pro day.
9:26 — The Bears take Darnell Wright, so I guess I’m not the only one who’s really high on him. I’ve written several times already on this site that I think he could end up being the best tackle in the draft. Now the Jets aren’t getting him, and the Patriots aren’t getting him, either. If Smith-Njigba goes before 14, and I can’t imagine that he will not, the Patriots will almost certainly trade down now. Maybe they stick if Gonzalez is on the board, but Bill has good luck with CBs in later rounds.
9:30 — So I guess these are in fact the final details of the Cards-Bears trade, per ESPN:
- Texans get: Picks No. 3 (Will Anderson), 105
- Cardinals get: Picks No. 12, 33, 2024 first, 2024 third
I have no idea where I got the Hopkins thing from.
9:34 — ARI-HOU trade value analysis:
Texans receive:
Pick 3 (2200 draft points)
Pick 105 (97)
Total draft points: 2297
Cardinals receive:
Pick 12 (1200)
Pick 33 (580)
2024 1st (1000)
2024 3rd (190)
Total draft points: 2970
Difference: ARI +673
Pick equivalent: Pick 1.27
Not quite as much as I had the Cardinals receiving for Pick 3 (1030=Pick 15-16), but not bad.
9:38 — The Titans take Skoronski at 11. I had them waiting until much later to address OT, but they do really need a guard, and that’s likely where he’ll play in Tennessee. Arms to short. That’s been the soundbite for a long time now.
9:40 — The Lions didn’t want Robinson because they wanted Gibbs. I thought I was overshooting when I had him going to the Saints. I’m not sure very many people imagined that Gibbs would go this high. I think he still would have been available at 18 when the Lions pick again, so I don’t like this pick at all. Not with Gonzalez still on the board. Strange one.
9:43 — The Packers take Lukas Van Ness! A guy who didn’t start in college. And they once again pass on WR in the first round. Gotta think Njigba is going to New England next.
9:47 — Draft pick value analysis:
Cardinals receive:
Pick 6 (1600 draft points)
Total draft points: 1600
Lions receive:
Pick 12 (1200)
Pick 34 (560)
Pick 168 (29)
Total draft points: 1789
Difference: Lions +189 points
Pick equivalent: Pick 80
9:48 — The Patriots did in fact trade down, with the Steelers, to pick 17. It would be incredible if PIT took Porter. (They will not.)
9:50 — The Steelers take Broderick Jones. This leaves the Jets in a very strange place. Their biggest needs are OT, LB, S, DT. There’s no one who fits for them here. Maybe they will trade down, too.
9:55 — Draft pick value analysis:
Eagles receive:
Pick 9 (1350 draft points)
Total draft points: 1350
Bears receive:
Pick 10 (1300)
2024 4th (70)
Total draft points: 1370
Difference: Bears +20 points
Pick equivalent: Pick 187
That trade is pretty much even. But the Bear lose nothing and gain a late-round flyer.
9:58 — The Jets rushed to get a pick in. I guess they couldn’t find a trade partner. A rushed pick is always bad.
10:00 — The Jets reach for LB Will McDonald. It’s the only pick for them that made sense at 15 at this point, though. At least they sort of filled need, and McDonald is a very good player. I had him going in the early second to Arizona. I’d have preferred a trade down for the Jets, and a pure linebacker such as Jack Campbell at 43.
10:05 — Draft pick value analysis:
Steelers receive:
Pick 14 (1100 draft points)
Total draft points: 1100
Patriots receive:
Pick 17 (950)
Pick 120 (68)
Total draft points: 1018
Difference: Steelers +82 points
Pick equivalent: Pick 113
So the Patriots trade down, and lose value. Bizarre. Belichick is so bizarre. Maybe they move down again, who knows.
10:09 — The Redskins take CB Emmanuel Forbes at 16. I had them taking CB Joey Porter Jr. here and the Steelers taking Forbes at 17.
10:10 — The Patriots nab Gonzalez. I guess the trade down worked for them, since they grabbed an extra 4th and still got who they wanted. Good job by Bill in the end. I think…
10:11 — For those lost in the insanity, we are waiting on the Lions’ selection at Pick 18.
10:12 — My webmaster says I should have done this live blog in latest-first order. Ok, he’s right. I don’t see him fixing it right now, though, do I. Jerk.
10:13 — I’m still shocked by the Gibbs pick. He absolutely still would have been here for Detroit at 18. Where I had them taking Bijan. I wonder what the Saints do with their first rounder now.
10:18 — Now the Lions WAY reach for Jack Campbell. I guess the Jets weren’t getting him at 43. Crazy draft so far.
10:21 — The Bucs take Cancey at 19. I mentioned in my mock how much I undervalued him. I ended up giving him to Philly at 30.
10:24 — Shiny Nolan Smith still on the board. The Jets could have gone with him at 15. I might have preferred it.
10:31 — Seattle is on the clock. There are one million kids on stage to announce this pick.
10:32 — Seattle takes Smith-Njigba at 20. I had them taking Zay Flowers, but I hadn’t imagined Njigba being available here.
10:34 — Great pick for Seattle. If Geno can play at even 85% of the level he played at last season the Seahawks should be a playoff team. Their division is a mess.
10:36 — Well, the Chargers aren’t taking Van Ness.
10:38 — The Chargers select Quentin Johnston at 21. The first four WRs off the board in this draft were always going to be Njigba, Johnston, Flowers, and Addison in some order.
10:41 — Ravens on the clock. There’s been surprisingly little talk about the Jackson contract. Maybe it was intentionally timed that way. The details of Jackson’s contract are so petty. “Hurts got $51M/year? I want $52M! Hurts got $36M/year average in guarantees? I want $37M!” Lamar wasn’t even subtle about it. An agent would have made it at least appear somewhat organic.
10:47 — The Ravens take Zay Flowers. For some reason people seemed to think Blotimore didn’t need a WR because they signed OBJ for tons of money. They did.
10:49 — Here’s where we are:
| 1 | 1 | Carolina Panthers | Bryce Young | QB | Alabama |
| 1 | 2 | Houston Texans | C.J. Stroud | QB | Ohio State |
| 1 | 3 | Houston Texans | Will Anderson | EDGE | Alabama |
| 1 | 4 | Indianapolis Colts | Anthony Richardson | QB | Florida |
| 1 | 5 | Seattle Seahawks | Devon Witherspoon | CB | Illinois |
| 1 | 6 | Arizona Cardinals | Paris Johnson | OT | Ohio State |
| 1 | 7 | Las Vegas Raiders | Tyree Wilson | EDGE | Texas Tech |
| 1 | 8 | Atlanta Falcons | Bijan Robinson | RB | Texas |
| 1 | 9 | Philadelphia Eagles | Jalen Carter | DT | Georgia |
| 1 | 10 | Chicago Bears | Darnell Wright | OT | Tennessee |
| 1 | 11 | Tennessee Titans | Peter Skoronski | OT/OG | Northwestern |
| 1 | 12 | Detroit Lions | Jahmyr Gibbs | RB | Alabama |
| 1 | 13 | Green Bay Packers | Lukas Van Ness | Iowa | EDGE |
| 1 | 14 | Pittsburgh Steelers | Broderick Jones | OT | Georgia |
| 1 | 15 | New York Jets | Will McDonald IV | EDGE | Iowa State |
| 1 | 16 | Washington Commanders | Emmanuel Forbes | DB | Mississippi State |
| 1 | 17 | New England Patriots | Christian Gonzalez | DB | Oregon |
| 1 | 18 | Detroit Lions | Jack Campbell | LB | Iowa State |
| 1 | 19 | Tampa Bay Buccaneers | Calijah Kancey | DT | Pitt |
| 1 | 20 | Seattle Seahawks | Jaxon Smith-Njigba | WR | Ohio State |
| 1 | 21 | Los Angeles Chargers | Quentin Johnston | WR | TCU |
| 1 | 22 | Baltimore Ravens | Zay Flowers | WR | Boston College |
10:52 — I’d love to see the Vikings take Levis.
10:52 — I’m used to operating using 24 hour time. I keep starting to type in it and then needing to start over. Next time I might just use 24 hour time. It’s cooler.
10:54 — The announcers on NFL Network seem to want the Vikings to take Addison. I guess. He’s really small and kind of slow. I think he has the highest bust potential of any of the consensus top 4 receivers.
10:55 — The Jaguars do take Addison. The Giants are so unlucky. They’re desperate for a WR. No WRs were taken until pick 20, and now they’re all gone at 24.
10:57 — …and yet, the Giants are moving up a spot? What’s this about?
11:00 — Are the Giants moving up for Torrence? Nolan Smith? Why aren’t they moving down? Who are they jumping and for what? I’m so confused. Maybe they really like Jalin Hyatt. That has to be it…
11:04 — Deonte Banks. CB wasn’t even on my radar for the Giants. Did they really need to move up to get him?
11:06 — Draft pick value analysis:
Giants receive:
Pick 24 (740 draft points)
Total draft points: 740
Jaguars receive:
Pick 25 (720)
Pick 160 (34)
Pick 240 (1)
Total draft points: 755
Difference: Jaguars +15 points
Pick equivalent: Pick 196
I really dislike this trade for the Giants. I’d rather have the two extra picks. And I still don’t know who they thought they were jumping. For a cornerback. My least favorite trade of the night, probably. I’ll think on it.
11:09 — The Bills have traded up with the Jaguars from 27 to 25. Has to be to jump Dallas for a TE.
11:11 — …it was to jump Dallas for a TE. The Bills take Kincaid. The Cowboys could still take Mayer, who can actually block (really well).
11:14 — Levis still on the board. He’d be so much more valuable to a team if they took him in the 1st and got that fifth year option. Someone will trade into the first for him.
11:17 — Draft pick value analysis:
Jaguars receive:
Pick 27 (680 draft points)
Pick 130 (49)
Total draft points: 729
Bills receive:
Pick 25 (720)
Total draft points: 720
Difference: Jaguars +9 points
Pick equivalent: Pick 207
Great move by the Bills to jump Dallas for Kincaid and pay very little to do so. I like it for JAX, too. Free extra pick.
11:23 — The Cowboys use pick 26 to take DL Mazi Smith. He’s one of my favorite players in the draft, and he fills a huge need for Dallas. I had him going at 2.37 to Seattle. Great pick. I’m a bit surprised they didn’t take Mayer, but this was probably the right move.
11:24 — Jacksonville on the clock for the 40th time tonight.
11:25 — Torrence is still available for JAX.
11:25 — The Jags took Anton Harrison, who I had to the Chiefs at 31. I have no idea why the Jaguars think they need him, though. CB, IOL, DE, S, DT, TE. That was my needs list for JAX. And Harrison doesn’t seem like enough of a talent to quality for BPA here.
11:27 — Mayer still there for Cincy….
11:28 — It has to be Mayer. (Every time I’ve said “it has to be…” tonight I’ve been wrong.)
11:29 — Yep, I was wrong. The Bengals took Myles Murphy, who I had going to the Bucs at 19. And I thought that was low. This is good value for the Bengals who need an EDGE as much as they need a TE.
11:30 — Levis is still here.
11:33 — The Saints are on the clock. Nolan Smith would make sense.
11:34 — My needs list for the Saints: DE, LB, RB, CB, DT, WR, TE, G. In roughly that order.
11:35 — The Saints take Bryan Bresee. It’s a fine pick. He was considered a top-12 pick by many not too long ago. I had him going with the first pick of the second round to the Steelers.
11:38 — Only the Eagles and Chiefs are left. Barring some weird trade, Levis will fall to the second. I had him in the third. Overall. The third in the first. The third pick.
11:40 — These NFL announcers are even higher on Nolan Smith than I was in my mock. They will not stop talking about him, and they’ve been doing so for hours.
11:41 — The announcers are correct about this, though: If the Eagles get both Carter and Smith, that would be sick. Talk about an immediate defensive rebuild.
11:45 — Yep, the Eagles got Shiny Smith. Great draft for them in theory, but a very risky one in practice. Carter’s risks are well known. And Smith might be a just a workout warrior. We’ll see.
11:46 — I would like it very much if I never had to see those weirdo coin-flipping twins who were onstage during the Eagles pick ever again.
11:54 — My list of Chiefs need, in rough order of priority: OT, DE, RB, WR, DT, TE, CB, S.
11:56 — The Chiefs make the final selection of Round 1, and they take DE/EDGE Felix Anudike-Uzomah. I had him going to the Bears with the 61st pick. Instead he sneaks into the first. He’s a great player. Almost 20 sacks over his past two seasons at Kansas State.
11:58 — And that’s the end of Day 1 of the 2023 Draft. This commentary will start up again live tomorrow around 7pm ET. Have a good night, everyone. Please join our site (it’s free) and check out the rest of our content. We’ve only been online for about a week, and our content is just getting started.
— Cassie
| Round | Pick | Team | Player | Position | School |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | Carolina Panthers | Bryce Young | QB | Alabama |
| 1 | 2 | Houston Texans | C.J. Stroud | QB | Ohio State |
| 1 | 3 | Houston Texans | Will Anderson | EDGE | Alabama |
| 1 | 4 | Indianapolis Colts | Anthony Richardson | QB | Florida |
| 1 | 5 | Seattle Seahawks | Devon Witherspoon | CB | Illinois |
| 1 | 6 | Arizona Cardinals | Paris Johnson | OT | Ohio State |
| 1 | 7 | Las Vegas Raiders | Tyree Wilson | EDGE | Texas Tech |
| 1 | 8 | Atlanta Falcons | Bijan Robinson | RB | Texas |
| 1 | 9 | Philadelphia Eagles | Jalen Carter | DT | Georgia |
| 1 | 10 | Chicago Bears | Darnell Wright | OT | Tennessee |
| 1 | 11 | Tennessee Titans | Peter Skoronski | OT/OG | Northwestern |
| 1 | 12 | Detroit Lions | Jahmyr Gibbs | RB | Alabama |
| 1 | 13 | Green Bay Packers | Lukas Van Ness | Iowa | EDGE |
| 1 | 14 | Pittsburgh Steelers | Broderick Jones | OT | Georgia |
| 1 | 15 | New York Jets | Will McDonald IV | EDGE | Iowa State |
| 1 | 16 | Washington Commanders | Emmanuel Forbes | DB | Mississippi State |
| 1 | 17 | New England Patriots | Christian Gonzalez | DB | Oregon |
| 1 | 18 | Detroit Lions | Jack Campbell | LB | Iowa State |
| 1 | 19 | Tampa Bay Buccaneers | Calijah Kancey | DT | Pitt |
| 1 | 20 | Seattle Seahawks | Jaxon Smith-Njigba | WR | Ohio State |
| 1 | 21 | Los Angeles Chargers | Quentin Johnston | WR | TCU |
| 1 | 22 | Baltimore Ravens | Zay Flowers | WR | Boston College |
| 1 | 23 | Minnesota Vikings | Jordan Addison | WR | USC |
| 1 | 24 | New York Giants | Deonte Banks | CB | Maryland |
| 1 | 25 | Buffalo Bills | Dalton Kincaid | TE | Utah |
| 1 | 26 | Dallas Cowboys | Mazi Smith | DT | Michigan |
| 1 | 27 | Jacksonville Jaguars | Anton Harrison | OT | Oklahoma |
| 1 | 28 | Cincinnati Bengals | Myles Murphy | DE | Clemson |
| 1 | 29 | New Orleans Saints | Bryan Bresee | DE/DT | Clemson |
| 1 | 30 | Philadelphia Eagles | Nolan Smith | EDGE | Georgia |
| 1 | 31 | Kansas City Chiefs | Felix Anudike-Uzomah | EDGE | Kansas State |
—
18:58 — Welcome to Day 2! The Steelers are on the clock in 2 minutes.
19:07 — We need to wait through some Goodell nonsense for a bit.
19:10 — I’d love to see Levis go right away via trade. He didn’t show up to the green room for today, though.
19:12 — When the Steelers passed on Porter in the first round I thought we’d mercifully heard the end of the Porter-Pittsburgh talk. We had not.
19:14 — I hope Arizona trades down. Here or with their next pick.
19:15 — Porter to the Steelers. Great. Now we need to hear about the Porter-Pittsburgh thing for a decade. Really good pick, though. Strange he was still on the board.
19:17 — Arizona was really hoping Pittsburgh wouldn’t take Porter.
19:19 — If they don’t trade down the Cardinals should take Stevenson or Ringo.
19:20 — The Cardinals have traded down with the Titans. Just as I predicted. (For round 1.)
19:22 — The Titans select Levis. Excellent pick. We’ll see what the trade details look like. I wonder if they tried to trade up into the first round yesterday but couldn’t. That fifth year option would have been nice.
19:25 — The Lions select…Sam LaPorta? I really dislike the Lions’ draft so far.
19:30 — Draft pick value analysis:
Cardinals receive:
Pick 41 (490 draft points)
Pick 72 (230)
2024 3rd (190)
Total draft points: 910
Titans receive:
Pick 33 (580)
Pick 81 (185)
Total draft points: 765
Difference: Cardinals +145 points
Pick equivalent: Pick 89
19:31 — The Raiders have traded up to pick 2.5 to select TE Michael Mayer. If the Lions were going to take a TE, this is the one they should have gone with. The Raiders had bigger needs than this, but they got a great player. Trade details to follow.
19:35 — The Rams take IOL Steve Avilia at 2.5. Great player. I had him going in the first. Good fit, too. I like the pick a lot. I still think it’s a bit of a reach, even though I had Avilia going earlier.
19:37 — With pick 2.6(37) the Seahawks take DE Derick Hall. I had him going at 2.17(48) to the Lions.
19:39 — The Falcons have traded up with the Colts for 2.7(38).
19:40 — Atlanta takes OL Matthew Bergeron. I had him at 2.19(50) to TB. This might be a reach.
19:42 — Panthers on the clock. Round 2, Pick 8, 39 overall.
19:45 — Draft pick value analysis:
Raiders receive:
Pick 35 (550 draft points)
Total draft points: 550
Colts receive:
Pick 38 (520)
Pick 141 (44)
Total draft points: 564
Difference: Colts +14 points
Pick equivalent: Pick 197
19:47 — Carolina takes WR Jonathan Mingo. I MOCKED THIS! How did I manage to get a second round pick correct. I thought I was reaching.
19:50 — The Saints are on the clock for the 9th pick of the second round.
19:51 — The Saints take Isaiah Foskey. I had him mocked to the Chiefs way down at 2.32(63). I was way more down on him than most. Still, this is way too early for him with White, Ojulari, and Adebawore on the board.
19:55 — The Cardinals are up after trading down.
19:56 — Take a CB, please.
19:57 — They took Ojulari. It’s an ok pick. I’d have preferred Stevenson. And at DT I’d have preferred Adebawore.
19:58 — The Packers take Musgrave. I LOVE this pick. Green Bay wasn’t suckered by Washington.
20:02 — The Jets took a center. I give up.
20:06 — The Colts take DB Julius Brents at 2.13(44). I like this pick a lot, since I had the Colts taking him at 2.4(35) before they traded down.
20:13 — The Lions have traded up to 45. Let’s see if this is as terrible as their other picks.
20:14 — The Lions take Bryan Branch from Alabama. I don’t like Bryan Branch as some, and he’s more of a safety than a CB. Their awful draft continues.
20:16 — I like that Branch showed up tonight. That’s awesome. I have nothing against him as a player or a person, I want to be clear.
20:19 — Draft pick value analysis:
Lions receive:
Pick 45 (450 draft points)
Total draft points: 450
Packers receive:
Pick 48 (420)
Pick 159 (35)
Total draft points: 455
Difference: Packers +5 points
Pick equivalent: Pick 215
20:20 — The Patriots take Keion White with 2.15(46). Another great pick for NE. I had him going at 40 to the Saints.
20:22 — The Redskins take Jartavius Martin at 47. Great pick. They really needed a versatile DB.
20:24 — The Bucs jump the Steelers, trade up with the Packers, and take Cody Mauch. It’s a great pick for them. We’ll see about the trade details. The announcers are already talking about Mauch’s mouth, which I predicted in my mock. One of the only things I predicted correctly.
20:27 — The Steelers are up at 2.18(49).
20:27 — The Steelers take Keeanu Benton. I had him going at the top of the 3rd. He’s a good fit for Pittsburgh.
20:29 — The Packers take Jayden Reed. I had him WAY down at 85. I don’t like this nearly as much as their previous pick.
20:31 — The Dolphins finally get to pick, at 2.20.51.
20:31 — And they take Cam Smith. This is in the right range for him. The Dolphins had more pressing needs, though. DT and IOL come to mind. I’d have liked Schmidt here.
20:33 — The Seahawks take Zach Charbonnet at 2.21.52. I had a list of needs for Seattle 9 positions long and RB wasn’t on it. And I’m not even a fan of Kenneth Walker’s.
20:36 — Draft pick value analysis:
Buccaneers receive:
Pick 48 (420 draft points)
Total draft points: 420
Packers receive:
Pick 50 (400)
Pick 179 (24)
Total draft points: 424
Difference: Packers +4 points
Pick equivalent: Pick 217
20:37 — Why did the Packers and Lions make an intra-divisional trade? The NFC North keeps doing this.
20:38 — The Bears are up with one of Carolina’s picks.
20:39 — Devin Hester in the house. Nice.
20:40 — The Bears take Gervon Dexter. One of my favorite players in the draft. I had him at 2.27(58) to the Cowboys, so 53 isn’t unreasonable for him. DTs have been flying off, so this was a good move.
20:42 — The Chargers take Tuli Tuipulotu at 54. This is exactly where I had him. I like the pick a lot.
20:43 — This draft has gone really quickly. Hard to keep up. I’ll have deeper thoughts when I write up my draft grade commentary. Quick draft grades should be up tonight, by which I mean 3, 4, 5am ET Saturday.
20:46 — The Chiefs have traded up with Detroit for pick 2.24.55. The Lions had it via MIN, who does not pick in this round and made a terrible selection in the first.
20:47 — The Lions have been insanely active with trades this draft. They don’t have much to show for it, though.
20:48 — Well, they have stuff to show for it if you ignore where they’ve taken the players and how.
20:48 — The Chiefs take Rashee Rice. I had him at 59 to the Bills, which was already high, so 55 seems rich. Hyatt was still on the board. So was Tillman, and others. The Chiefs really needed a WR, but maybe not this one.
20:51 — I had Tillman, Downs, and Hyatt ahead of Rice, and they were all there for KC. I don’t like the Rice pick – he was my final R2 receiver.
20:52 — The Bears moved up with the Jags and took Tyrique Stevenson. They really needed a CB. I had Stevenson going in the third, but I’ve seen a lot of mocks who had Stevenson higher than this, and this draft has fallen weirdly.
20:54 — The Giants take Schmitz at 2.26.57. Great, great selection. Love it. One my favorites of the draft so far.
20:56 — The Cowboys go TE and take Schoonmaker, who I see as more of a TE2. They should have taken Mayer in the first if they wanted a TE, because this is a serious reach. I really liked the Mazi Smith pick, but it only caused them to mess up this one in the end.
21:00 — Draft pick value analysis:
Chiefs receive:
Pick 55 (350 draft points)
Total draft points: 350
Lions receive:
Pick 63 (276)
Pick 122 (64)
Pick 249 (1)
Total draft points: 341
Difference: Chiefs +9 points
Pick equivalent: Pick 207
21:02 — The Bills use pick 2.28(59) to take O’Cyrus Torrence. Great player, fantastic value, perfect fit. I might have a new favorite selection.
21:05 — The Bengals take D.J. Turner at 60. Love the pick. A really good player who fills a really big need. I had this pick mocked accurately.
21:09 — Draft pick value analysis:
Bears receive:
Pick 56 (340 draft points)
Total draft points: 340
Jaguars receive:
Pick 61 (292)
Pick 136 (46)
Total draft points: 338
Difference: Bears +2 points
Pick equivalent: Pick 221
21:10 — The Jaguars use the pick they acquired from the Bears to take TE Brenton Strange. I had him at the end of the 4th round to Carolina. And TE wasn’t even a huge need for Jacksonville. I don’t care for this.
21:15 — I know IOL are going quickly, and I know the Texans need help at both guard and center. I also really like Scruggs as a player. But I had Scruggs mocked variously in the late fifth-sixth round. This is a serious reach. There are lots of players at the position I would have taken before him.
21:17 — The Broncos move into the 2nd round at 2.32 (63) to make their first pick of the draft, WR Marvin Mims. They traded pick 68 to get there; I had the Broncos taking Mims with their pick at 67. I’m not sure the trade was needed. We’ll see what happens between now and then.
21:20 — The Bears open the third frame by taking DT Zacch Pickens. I had him going considerably later, at pick 84 to the Dolphins. Pickens filled a need, but there have been a couple of DL selections today that have been reaches when better players at the position have been available.
21:25 — Draft pick value analysis:
Texans receive:
Pick 62 (284 draft points)
Total draft points:
Eagles receive:
Pick 65 (265)
Pick 188 (19)
Pick 230 (1)
Total draft points: 285
Difference: Eagles +1 points
Pick equivalent: —
21:26 — The Eagles use the 65th, which they received from HOU, to take OT Tyler Steen. I had him going at 75 to the Falcons. I’m not sure what they Eagles are planning on doing with him. Kicking him inside to guard? I guess he’s an upgrade for Mailata.
21:30 — The Eagles make a second consecutive pick, using the weird pick they got from the Cardinals to settle a tampering dispute (I need to update my trade analysis for that, by the way). They take safety Sydney Brown. It’s a good pick. They need a safety, and I had Brown in this range.
21:33 — At 3.4.67 the Broncos take Drew Sanders. This is excellent value for Sanders, who was once considered a first round prospect by some. I didn’t view LB as a need for the Broncos, but I had him going 10 picks earlier than this, so the value is there.
21:34 — The Lions trade up with Denver and take Hendon Hooker. I’ll need to see what the trade details are, and who Detroit thought they were jumping, but I really like the selection. Hooker won’t play this season, but the Lions don’t need him to.
21:37 — The Texans trade up and select Nathaniel Dell. This is the right range for Dell, and the Texans really needed a WR. Solid choice, we’ll see about the trade details.
21:39 — Good move by the Rams trading down, if the compensation is ok. I’ll do the math in a bit.
21:39 — The Raiders stay where they are, which I didn’t know was allowed today, and take Byron Young of Alabama. Another questionable DL choice. I had him in the mid-fourth. Siaki has predictably tumbled, I’m sure due to weight and conditioning concerns.
21:41 — The Saints take Kendre Miller at 3.8.71 and this is one of my favorite picks of the draft. Much better RB value than when I had them taking Gibbs in Round 1.
21:45 — The Saints are preparing for life without Kamara, as they should be.
21:46 — The Cardinals use a pick from Tennessee to take Garrett Williams. I had him later than this, 88 to the Jags, but the Cardinals needed a CB after passing on one in the first. Kelee Ringo would have been a MUCH better pick. Can’t believe he’s still around. I had him at 52 to Seattle.
21:48 — The Giants take Jalin Hyatt at 73 with what is probably the new best pick of the draft. Huge need, and a player I had going with the 2nd pick in round TWO. Wow.
21:49 — Lots of trade details to catch up on. They’re coming.
21:51 — The Browns use the pick they got from the Jets to take a solid WR. But they received a WR in that trade when they gave away their 2nd rounder. Cleveland had many more pressing needs. I don’t love this pick.
21:56 — Draft pick value analysis:
Broncos receive:
Pick 63 (276 draft points)
Pick 183 (22)
Total draft points: 298
Lions receive:
Pick 68 (245)
Pick 139 (45)
Total draft points: 290
Difference: Broncos +8 points
Pick equivalent: Pick 208
21:57 — The Falcons take DE Zach Harrison with Pick 75. This is the right range for him. Good pick.
21:59 — The Patriots do a Patriots thing and trade up for a player they could have taken two rounds from now. Nothing to see here.
22:00 — The Rams take Byron Young (Tennessee) at 3.14.77. A DE will be helpful, but this is about 30 picks too early for him.
22:03 — …did the Packers just take a TE? I had him in this range (83), but didn’t GB already select a TE?
22:05 — The Colts use pick 79 (from WAS) to take Josh Downs. Downs should have been taken in the mid- to late-second round. What a steal.
22:07 — The Panthers trade up with the Steelers to take D.J. Johnson. And I have absolutely zero idea why. What the hell? Awful pick. Terrible.
22:10 — McCourty just announced himself. I wish Good Morning Football were on tomorrow.
22:11 — The Titans use a Cardinals pick to take RB Tyjae Spears. This is a bit early? But it’s fine. If you like injured players. I don’t think TEN has any idea what to do with Henry at this point.
22:12 — The Bucs use their own pick to take OLB Yaya Diaby, one of my favorite players in this draft. He’s really small, but man can he move. A bit early for him.
22:15 — I think the Broncos have moved up to 83.
22:16 — Yes, they have.
22:17 — The Broncos take DB Riley Moss. A guy on NFL Network is saying that the reason people don’t think Moss can play CB is that he’s white (he’s not saying it, he’s saying he hears other people saying it). I hadn’t heard it. Not sure if Moss can play CB, though. And this is a nit early for him.
22:20 — The Dolphins use their own pick at 3.21(84) to take RB Devon Achane. Nice player, I had him at 77 so the value is there, but the Dolphins don’t have many picks and have yet to address IOL or DT.
22:24 — The Chargers use their own pick to take LB Daiyan Henley. This is one of the better picks of the round.
22:26 — The Ravens take LB Trenton Simpson at 3.23.86. Wow, did he fall. I had him at 44. He seemed really happy when he was picked, and good for him.
22:27 — The 49ers, who apparently do have a pick in this draft, take safety Ji’Ayir Brown. I had him at 99. Not a stunning entrance. But not a bad one. I’d have gone with someone like Jordan Battle.
22:31 — The Jaguars take RB Tank Bigsby at 3.25(88). Another weird pick. Do they need a RB right now? And Bigsby is fine, but I had him at 94. It’s not as though they’re getting some fantastic value.
22:34 — The Rams use their pick from NYG at 89 to take DT Kobie Turner. Turner is a player I didn’t even give to the Jets when I was desperate to get them a DL in the the 5th at pick 143. Yuck.
22:38 — The Cowboys take DeMarvion Overshown at 90. I had him at 120. But LB is so shallow in this draft, and I really like him as a player.
22:40 — The Bills take ILB Dorian Williams at 91. He’s another linebacker I had mocked in the 4th. We might be seeing a lot of RB reaches (though we are getting out of “reach” territory this far into the draft).
22:42 — The Chiefs have trade up with the Bengals to Pick 92. Why are they trading with each other?
22:43 — The Chiefs select Wanya Morris. They needed a tackle. I had them taking an Oklahoma tackle in the first round. Not this one. I gave Wanya Morris to the Jag with pick 25 of Round 4, and that was only because they suddenly needed tackle help this week. They ended up taking a tackle much, much sooner than that. I don’t like this pick at all. OTs still left on the board: Dawand Jones (how?), Jaylen Duncan (how?), and even Blake Freeland and Nick Saldiveri. Poor selection.
22:48 — Darnell Washington goes to the Steelers at 93. The announcers are shocked was still on the board. I’m not, for the health and conditioning issues I mentioned many times in my mock. I had eventually had him going at 81. I did think he would go much sooner, but only because of the media hype, not because I thought he warranted it.
22:51 — The Cardinals take Michael Wilson out of Stanford with pick 94. I had him in the mid-5th (including the fake 5th round picks). There are better receivers still on the board. A.T. Perry, Xavier Hutchinson, Tyler Scott. And the Cardinals traded up for him. I don’t like this. At all.
22:59 — The Bengals take Jordan Battle. It’s a great pick, and one the 49ers should have made at 87. If they were going to take a safety.
23:00 — The Lions take DT Brodric Martin at 96. Why. I told you there would be more DL reaches.
23:02 — The Redskins take center Ricky Stromberg at 97. With Luke Wypler still there. No.
23:05 — The Browns take Siaki Ika, which I suppose isn’t a reach, because he was projected to go much higher, but he fell for a reason, and that’s his weight.
23:06 — The 49ers took a kicker in the 3rd. F grade. Let’s move on.
23:08 — With pick 100 the Raiders take WR Tre Tucker. A wasted pick.
23:10 — At 101 the 49ers take TE Cameron Latu. This is way too early for him with Whyle, Mallory, and Kuntz on the board.
23:13 — With the final pick of the night, the Vikings take Mekhi Blackmon. I don’t know why. I also don’t know how the hell Kelee Ringo is still on the board. Did I miss something on him?
23:16 — That’s it for the draft, but there will be a lot more posted on this page tonight. I need to do all the trade calculations I didn’t have time to do during the broadcast. See you in a bit.
The remaining trade analyses for Day 2
Draft pick value analysis:
Texans receive:
Pick 69 (245 draft points)
Pick 191 (18)
Total draft points: 263
Rams receive:
Pick 73 (225)
Pick 161 (33)
Total draft points: 258
Difference: Texans +5 points
Pick equivalent: Pick 215
—
Draft pick value analysis:
Giants receive:
Pick 73 (225 draft points)
Total draft points: 225
Lions receive:
Pick 89 (145)
Pick 128 (52)
Total draft points: 197
Difference: Giants +28 points
Pick equivalent: Pick 170
—
Draft pick value analysis:
Panthers receive:
Pick 80 (190 draft points)
Total draft points: 190
Steelers receive:
Pick 93 (128)
Pick 132 (48)
Total draft points: 176
Difference: Panthers +14 points
Pick equivalent: Pick 197
—
Draft pick value analysis:
Broncos receive:
Pick 83 (175 draft points)
Total draft points: 175
Seahawks receive:
Pick 108 (92)
2024 3rd (190)
Total draft points: 282
Difference: Seahwaks +107 points
Pick equivalent: Pick 100
—
Draft pick value analysis:
49ers receive:
Pick 87 (155 draft points)
Total draft points: 155
Vikings receive:
Pick 102 (100)
Pick 164 (31)
Pick 222 (2)
Total draft points: 133
Difference: 49ers +22 points
Pick equivalent: Pick 182
—
Draft pick value analysis:
Chiefs receive:
Pick 92 (132 draft points)
Total draft points: 132
Bengals receive:
Pick 95 (120)
Pick 217 (4)
Total draft points: 124
Difference: Chiefs +8 points
Pick equivalent: Pick 209
—
Draft pick value analysis:
Lions receive:
Pick 96 (116 draft points)
Total draft points: 116
Cardinals receive:
Pick 122 (64)
Pick 139 (45)
Pick 168 (29)
Total draft points: 138
Difference: Cardinals +22 points
Pick equivalent: Pick 183
—
This is an amendment to the Cardinals-Lions trade from Thursday. It turns out that the Cardinals also received pick 81 in the deal. So:
Draft pick value analysis:
Cardinals receive:
Pick 6 (1600 draft points)
Pick 81 (185)
Total draft points: 1785
Lions receive:
Pick 12 (1200)
Pick 34 (560)
Pick 168 (29)
Total draft points: 1789
Difference: Lions +4 points
Pick equivalent: Pick 217
…the trade is nearly even. Without 81, the Cardinals were sacrificing roughly Pick 80.
—
This is a breakdown of the Cardinals-Eagles trade that served as settlement for a tampering dispute. We provided the picks that were exchange earlier, but not the value breakdown:
Draft pick value analysis:
Cardinals receive:
Pick 94 (124 draft points)
2024 5th (34)
Total draft points: 158
Eagles receive:
Pick 66 (260)
Total draft points: 260
Difference: Eagles +102 points
Pick equivalent: Pick 101
—
10:25 — Welcome to Day 3! Chicago is on the clock with pick 103 around Noon ET.
10:26 — The Bears made one of the best selections of Day 1, taking OT Darnell Wright of Tennessee after trading down twice (from 1 to 9, and then from 9 to 10).
10:27 — Chicago then doubled down on DT on Day 2, and addressed the secondary with CB Tyrique Stevenson in between.
10:49 — It’s difficult for me to see EDGE Adetomiwa Adebawore not being the pick here. He’s not a prototypical EDGE, but I think he fits perfectly in Chicago. I had him in the second round, as did most.
10:54 — Another option is to trade down with someone who has a WR in mind, or needs a CB. Dawand Jones also a possible target for someone trading up.
12:05 — The Bears do make a trade. As do a billion other teams, apparently. I’ll get on the details.
12:08 — Updated draft order:
103. Saints
104. Raiders
105. Eagles
12:10 — The Saints take T Nick Saldiveri. He was announced as a guard. And that’s certainly where he’ll play. It’s what they need, and they’d have taken Jones if they wanted a tackle. I had him 13 picks later to the Packers.
12:13 — The Raiders take Jakorian Bennett. He is one fast CB. Fills a big need. Had him at 4.23 to LAC.
12:14 — Eagles are up. The announcers are applauding their draft up to now. I agree they’ve done ok. I will have team draft grades up next week.
12:15 — The Patriots have 4 fourth round picks today, starting after Philly.
12:16 — The Eagles take another Bulldog and the announcers love it. It’s going to be such a tiring draft story. Someone will call them the Georgia Eagles or Philadelphia Bulldogs and think he’s being clever. Ringo is a great pick, though, and a very good player. His fall was inexplicable to me, and I’m sure there’s something I’m missing.
12:18 — The Colts take Blake Freeland. Another good player who fell. He might end up at guard in Indy. I forgot the Colts had a pick. New England is next.
12:24 — Trade details:
Eagles receive:
Pick 105
Texans receive:
2024 R3
–
Raiders receive:
Pick 104
Pick 203
Texans receive:
Pick 109
Pick 174
–
Saints receive:
Pick 103
Bears receive:
Pick 114
Pick 165
12:27 — The Patriots do a Patriot thing and take a center not on my board. The Seahawks take Anthony Bradford – LOVE this pick. I didn’t think he would go this early, but he deserves it.
12:29 — The Jets just traded down with the Pats. WHAT IS HAPPENING.
12:31 — Adebawore finally goes. Don’t know why he fell. He’s was really healthy throughout college, I think. Good value for the Colts.
12:34 — Browns take Dawand Jones. Finally. He will surely play guard.
12:36 — The Pats traded up for a kicker. What the hell is Bill doing.
12:39 — Zavala goes to to Carolina. Good pick.
12:40 — Still looking for Jets-Pats trade details.
12:41 — Trade details:
Patriots receive:
Pick 112
Jets receive:
Pick 120
Pick 184
12:41 — Love the Roschon Johnson pick for Chicago. Really good value. He’ll be compared with Bijan his entire career.
12:42 — Trade values:
Draft pick value analysis:
Patriots receive:
Pick 112 (84 draft points)
Total draft points: 84
Jets receive:
Pick 120 (68)
Pick 184 (21)
Total draft points: 89
Difference: Jets +5 points
Pick equivalent: Pick 215
–
Draft pick value analysis:
Eagles receive:
Pick 105 (97 draft points)
Total draft points: 97
Texans receive:
2024 R3 (190)
Total draft points: 190
Difference: Texans +93 points
Pick equivalent: Pick 108
–
Draft pick value analysis:
Raiders receive:
Pick 104 (98 draft points)
Pick 203 (11)
Total draft points: 109
Texans receive:
Pick 109 (90)
Pick 174 (26)
Total draft points: 116
Difference: Texans +7 points
Pick equivalent: Pick 211
–
Draft pick value analysis:
Saints receive:
Pick 104 (98 draft points)
Total draft points: 98
Bears receive:
Pick 115 (78)
Pick 165 (31)
Total draft points: 109
Difference: Bears +11 points
Pick equivalent: Pick 203
–
Draft pick value analysis:
Chiefs receive:
Pick 119 (70 draft points)
Total draft points: 70
Vikings receive:
Pick 134 (47)
2024 R5 (34)
Total draft points: 81
Difference: Vikings +11 points
Pick equivalent: Pick 203
12:59 — Jets take OT Carter Warren. I’d have preferred McClendon, Hayes, or Kirkland (later).
13:01 — We are at 4.20(122) and the Cardinals take OG Jon Gaines. I had several guards ahead of him. Ekiyor, Vorhees, especially Broeker. Fills a need I guess.
13:12 — After making the best pick of R1, the Patriots’ draft has imploded.
13:14 — WR Davis was a massive reach for LAC. I have probably 10 WRs ranked ahead of him.
13:15 — McGuire was a decent pick for ok value by —–
D’ANDRE SWIFT TO THE EAGLES.
13:17 — Stetson Bennet to the Rams and I like the pick as a HUGE risk with HUGE upside. There were better QBs on the board.
13:18 — Working on Swift trade details and value analysis.
13:19 — QBs I like more than Bennett:
Haener, Thompson-Robinson, Duggan, Tune. And DeVito, if you need a team announced — that guy has a future in broadcasting (and maybe at QB, I don’t know).
13:22 — I missed that Haener went to the Saints. Makes the Bennett move make more sense.
13:28 — Swift trade details:
Eagles receive: Swift, Pick 249
Lions receive: Pick 219, 2025 4th
Seems light.
13:29 — The problem with Swift, of course, is health. But the Eagles didn’t give up much to get him. As I wrote in my mock, the Eagles needed a RB even though a glance at their depth chart doesn’t immediately indicate it.
13:30 — WR Charlie Jones for the Bengals. His stats are weird. They seem really QB dependent. Luckily he has a really good one now for the NFL.
13:32 — I really like Herbig for PIT. Excellent value, good player, perfect fit.
13:34 — Trade values:
Draft pick value analysis:
Saints receive:
Pick Pick 127 (54 draft points)
Total draft points: 54
Jaguars receive:
Pick 227 (1)
2024 R4 (70)
Total draft points: 71
Difference: Jaguars +17 points
Pick equivalent: Pick 192
–
Draft pick value analysis:
Eagles receive:
Pick 249 (1 draft points)
RB D’Andre Swift
Total draft points: 1
Lions receive:
Pick 219 (3)
2024 R4 (70)
Total draft points: 73
Difference: Lions +72 points
Pick equivalent: Pick 118
This values swift at a mid-4th rounder in the current draft.
13:41 — Meanwhile, WR Tyler Scott went to the Bears (very good value, minor priority); and S Jay Ward went to the Vikings (fills a need, serious reach with Johnson, Skinner, Hickman, Joseph, Torrence, Hicks, and Skinner still on the board).
13:51 — The Raiders took Aiden O’Connell and I don’t know why. Again, many better QBs on the board. I don’t like him as a prospect as much as most do.
13:58 — At least the Browns are paying attention. They grab the best QB that was available on Day 3 in Thompson-Robinson. I think he’s ready to start during the season, though, so the fit is terrible.
14:06 — I like Roy for the Vikings. He was my final cut for R4.
14:07 — The Jets took a RB. I give up. Absolutely embarrassing draft.
14:10 — I like Abanikanda. I had him going 95th overall to the Chiefs. But we don’t need a RB.
14:11 — I like the Robinson pick for the Chiefs. I’ll grade it highly.
14:12 — Too early for Mafi. I listed the better guards/IOL still available above already.
14:15 — I really don’t understand what the Jets are doing. They haven’t addressed a single real need, other than OT, and they took the wrong player there. Aren’t they planning on winning this year? Or are they drafting for the future, when Rodgers is gone? They obviously haven’t decided. And they cannot do both, despite what the coach and GM say.
14:18 — To’oTo’o is a must-draft for NYJ right now. Antonio Johnson or To’oTo’o or Jaylen Duncan (if they hadn’t taken a worse OT already) or Xavier Hutchinson are the best players for the Jets available.
14:24 — Trade values:
Draft pick value analysis:
Raiders receive:
Pick 135 (47 draft points)
Total draft points: 1
Patriots receive:
Pick 144 (42)
Pick 214 (6)
Total draft points: 48
Difference: Patriots +1 points
Pick equivalent: —
–
Draft pick value analysis:
Redskins receive:
Pick 137 (46 draft points)
Total draft points: 46
Bills receive:
Pick 150 (39)
Pick 215 (5)
Total draft points: 44
Difference: Redskins +2 points
Pick equivalent: Pick 221
–
Draft pick value analysis:
Colts receive:
Pick 141 (44 draft points)
Total draft points: 44
Vikings receive:
Pick 158 (35)
Pick 211 (7)
Total draft points: 42
Difference: Colts +2 points
Pick equivalent: Pick 221
14:31 — I really like the Noah Sewell pick for Chicago. I had him at 129 to Dallas. The Bears have put together one of the best drafts of the year so far. The Patriots could have had Mapu around here. If they wanted him that badly they should have traded down with that pick.
14:36 — To orient you: We are at pick 5.21(155) and the 49ers are on the clock with their first pick of the day.
14:37 — SF took Darrell Luter. Don’t like it with Hodges-Tomlinson still there.
14:43 — Kyu Blu Kelly is a great pick by bloltimore. I had him at 4.119 to Minnesota.
14:48 — Some good DBs coming off the board now as the Colts take S Daniel Scott and the Jaguars take Antonio Johnson. Johnson in particular should have gone well above some of the safties who were taken earlier. I had him to the Jaguars at 56! This will earn an A/A+ grade.
14:52 — Another good pick, with the Rams taking Nick Hampton.
14:54 — Will Mallory and Chase Brown for IND and CIN respectively are two more solid picks. I had Brown in the late 4th. I had Mallory about 20 picks later than this, which isn’t a big deal at this point in the draft.
14:56 — The Vikings take QB Jaren Hall. I think he’s the 11th QB taken so far in the draft. Something like that.
14:56 — Since the Jets’ draft is a complete loss at this point, I wouldn’t mind seeing them take Max Duggan at 170. He’s a quality player. I don’t know where they’d put him unless they trade Wilson or carry a 4th QB. Boyle isn’t going anywhere. Streveler will likely be cut no matter what.
15:19 — The Jets traded down with the Raiders from 170. They probably wanted To’oTo’o or Pappoe and bailed when they went. Well, maybe not. That would make sense, so, yeah, not.
15:22 — Eric Gray just went to the Giants. McBride and Deuce Vaughn are still there. I like Vaughn a lot. He just needs to be used properly. Definitely not a 3 down back.
15:24 — Details and value analysis for a couple of trades:
Draft pick value analysis:
Texans receive:
Pick 167 (30 draft points)
Total draft points: 30
Rams receive:
Pick 174 (26)
Pick 259 (1,000,000,000)
Total draft points: 1,000,000,026
Difference: Rams +999,999,996 points
Pick equivalent: Jackpot
—
Draft pick value analysis:
Raiders receive:
Pick 170 (28 draft points)
Total draft points: 28
Jets receive:
Pick 204 (11)
Pick 220 (3)
Total draft points: 14
Difference: Raiders +14 points
Pick equivalent: Pick 198
15:33 — Yep. That trade was another terrible move by the Jets in a draft full of them.
15:35 — Trade values:
Draft pick value analysis:
Buccaneers receive:
Pick 171 (28 draft points)
Total draft points: 28
Rams receive:
Pick 175 (26)
Pick 252 (1)
Total draft points: 27
Difference: Buccaneers +1 points
Pick equivalent: 223
–
Draft pick value analysis:
Eagles receive:
Pick 191 (18 draft points)
Total draft points: 18
Texans receive:
Pick 230 (1)
Pick 248 (1)
Total draft points: 2
Difference: Eagles +16 points
Pick equivalent: Pick 193
15:38 — Puka Nacua was an interesting pick for the Rams. He has a lot of potential due to his fundamentals, but almost no athleticism relative to other WRs taken in this draft. I actually thought he might go a bit sooner than this to a team that wanted to take a chance.
15:41 — Great move by GB taking Karl Brooks at 6.2(179). I had him as an early 4th-rounder.
15:49 — I’m still waiting for Ryan Hayes to be drafted.
15:50 — Tre’vius Hodges-Tomlinson just went to the Rams. I’m surprised he wasn’t overdrafted due to the hype around his name.
15:55 — Love the Skinner pick by the Broncos. Could have gone much earlier.
15:56 — The linebacker the Jets just took is not on my draft board. By which I mean, in this case, I’ve never heard of him. Sure. Why not.
16:01 — Parker Washington is a fine pick by the Jags, but I am very surprised that Hutchinson is still available. There’s still a chance for the Jets to grab him!
16:02 — Jaylen Duncan is the best pick we’ve seen in hours. Great work by the Titans. He goes at 6.9(186). I had him at to the Rams. At 36. Overall. Wow. you can read my Duncan writeup here: https://cassandrapicks.com/2023/04/27/2023-nfl-mock-draft-round-2/
16:06 — Someone finally takes a chance on Boutte, and, unsurprisingly, it is New England. The most boom-or-bust big name prospect in the draft. I had him going much earlier, because I thought someone else would decide he was worth a Day 2 or early Day 3 pick because of what he’s showed on the field when he’s been there. Mac Jones is not the correct QB for him, but the Pats might be the right team.
16:09 — Tanner McKee to Philadelphia. An excellent player, who probably should have been the sixth QB off the board. No idea why he lasted this long. He lands in a terrible spot. He will never see the field.
16:17 — More great players coming off the board. C Luke Wypler, who should have gone rounds ago ahead of most of the centers already taken, to the Browns; and WR Trey Palmer, who I had to KC at the end of the 4th, to TB.
16:23 — Trade values:
Draft pick value analysis:
Cowboys receive:
Pick 178 (24 draft points)
Total draft points: 24
Chiefs receive:
2024 R5 (34)
Total draft points: 34
Difference: Chiefs +10 points
Pick equivalent: Pick 205
–
Draft pick value analysis:
Buccaneers receive:
Pick 191 (18 draft points)
Total draft points: 18
Eagles receive:
2024 R5 (34 draft points)
Total draft points: 34
Difference: Eagles +16 points
Pick equivalent: Pick 193
16:27 — RB Chris Rodriguez to the Redskins. This is about right. I had him in this range.
16:28 — WR A.T. Perry to the Saints. Excellent value. I had him to the Cardinals at 2.33(96). From my mock: “Despite barely playing his first two years at Wake Forest, Perry over four years totaled 171 receptions for 2,662 yards (15.6) and 28 TDs. In 2021 and 2022 alone he had 152 receptions for 2,389 yards and 26 TDs.”
16:32 — The Dolphins take WR Elijah Higgins at 6.20(197). Hutchinson still on the board. The Jets missed out on DT Keondre Coburn. The Chiefs took him at 194, and it was an excellent pick.
16:35 — S Jerrick Reed to Seattle. He was not on my draft board. Johnson, Hickman, and Torrence are all still available. Any of them would have been a better choice. I wonder if someone will take a chance on Trey Dean. He’s worth taking at this point in the draft for a team that needs a developmental safety.
16:38 — We are now at pick 6.24(201) and the Texans are on the board. The draft will have 259 total selections.
16:44 — C Jarrett Patterson from Notre Dame went to Houston at 6.224(201). He can also play guard. A very good player. I had him mocked almost 50 picks ago. Houston could use a guard and a center, so a good pick here.
16:49 — And the Jets take a CB to replace the disappointing Sauce Gardner.
17:04 — The Patriots take another WR, Demario Douglas from Liberty, at 6.33(210). Worth a flier at this point. Pretty much anyone is other than a kicker.
17:06 — Xavier Hutchinson, the guy I’ve been saying the Jets should take have taken since Pick 112 in Round 4, went to Houston one pick after the Jets drafted a CB I’ve never heard of. Nice.
17:08 — The Cowboys take Deuce Vaughn. All you’ll hear about is his height and the comparisons to another K-State RB, but he’s a good player. A fine pick for Dallas all the way at 211.
17:13 — Dante Stills goes to Arizona pretty much exactly where he should.
17:20 — Cam Jones and Ivan Pace are still on the board. They would be fine selections at this point. Pace’s still being there surprises me.
17:37 — The Jets used their final selections on Zack Kuntz. I really like the player. I had him going in Round 4. I hate the pick.
17:39 — DeWayne McBride to the Falcons at 224. Good value.
17:48 — I like the Ravens taking Andrew Vorhees at 229 a lot. A player who could and should have gone much sooner.
17:49 — Trade values:
Draft pick value analysis:
Saints receive:
Pick 195 (15 draft points)
Total draft points: 18
Broncos receive:
Pick 257 (1,000,000,000)
TE Adam Troutman
Total draft points: 1,000,000,000
Difference: Broncos +999,999,982 points
Pick equivalent: 2000 R6(199)
–
Draft pick value analysis:
Texans receive:
Pick 205 (10 draft points)
Total draft points: 10
Bills receive:
Pick 230 (1)
2024 R6 (21)
Total draft points: 22
Difference: Eagles Bills +12 points
Pick equivalent: Pick 201
–
Draft pick value analysis:
Rams receive:
Pick 215 (5 draft points)
Total draft points: 5
Bills receive:
Pick 252 (1 )
2024 R6 (21)
Total draft points: 22
Difference: Bills +17 points
Pick equivalent: Pick 192
–
Draft pick value analysis:
Ravens receive:
Pick 229 (1 draft points)
Total draft points: 1
Browns receive:
2024 R6 (21)
Total draft points: 21
Difference: Browns +20 points
Pick equivalent: Pick 186
18:06 — Carrington Valentine, who Mel Kiper inexplicably said was one of the five best players available going into today, is taken by the Packers with pick 7.15(232).
18:10 — RB Kenny McIntosh to the Seahawks at 237. I have no idea why Seattle took yet another RB. Special teams? He could have gone as early as the end of Round 4, though, so the value is there.
18:13 — OT Ryan Hayes from Michigan taken by the Dolphins at 7.21(238). I’m glad he was drafted.
18:14 — The Chargers make one of the best selections of Day 3 by taking QB Max Duggan at 7.23(240). Way too many teams passed on him. Watch him break down film and draw up plays, it’s remarkable.
18:17 — Another good pick very late in the 7th — CB Cory Trice of Purdue to the Steelers at 241. I don’t know why he fell so late. I had him at 102 to SF.
18:22 — The first FB of the draft comes off the board, as Derek Parish is taken by the Jags. I was sure the first FB would be Hunter Luepke, and I thought it would happen a round and a half ago. The Jaguars don’t even use a FB.
19:06 — And Desjuan Johnson is Mr. Irrelevant 2023. That guy is going to have a blast at the party. I’m looking forward to seeing what he asks for.
Thanks to everyone who checked in here over the past few days. I hope you enjoyed it. I did. Please register (it’s free) and comment here and on any other pages you find on our site that interest you. See you later this week with individual draft grades, team draft grades, NFL power rankings, new articles, and other great content. Cheers.
~~ Cassie.
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