Originally posted September 5, 2023 at 19:11.
*This page will be updated until our picks and bets are final; final picks and bets will be noted.*
Detroit Lions @ Kansas City Chiefs
Thursday, September 7
*Last updated September 7, 2023 at 20:02.*
This game is a mess.
The Lions are a team overrated by the public and the media (usually the same thing), yet whose win total oddly still remains at only 9.5 (juiced). I’d have thought it would have reached 10.5 by now.
Their defense, on paper, improved slightly, with Gardner-Johnson being the biggest addition. Hutchinson was fantastic in 2022, and should only become better. No one seems to care that Okudah is gone, but he could flourish in Atlanta. Detroit gave up almost 27 points per game last season, and they didn’t do enough defensively in the draft. RB Jahmyr Gibbs was a strange selection after the Montgomery move.
That said, Gibbs will have a lot of touches, as the Lions are missing most of their WRs.
Kansas City has made no progress on a new contract with DT Chris Jones. He’s threatening to hold out until mid-season. I don’t see that happening, but he almost certainly will not play this week.
TE Travis Kelce has a knee injury of some sort that will likely keep him out on Thursday. QB Patrick Mahomes doesn’t have a real receiving corps, and doesn’t have a real RB. None of those things has ever really mattered to him.
I was on the Chiefs a week ago. After the Kelce news, and with no progress made on the Jones contract, I moved to the Lions. Now that Chiefs -5 (down from 6.5) is available I’m hesitantly back on KC, but I will not be betting this game unless the line moves to 4, in which case I will consider it.
Preliminary Pick: KC -5 (0 units)
Thursday evening update:
The line has moved to -4 now that Kelce has been ruled out. I’m therefore taking the Chiefs, but I will not be betting this game.
Besides the topical concerns regarding Kelce and Jones being unavailable, I’m also nervous about the Lions’ improved secondary.
I expect good games from Gibbs and St. Brown, but I’ll take a Week-1-undefeated Mahomes, with hesitation, because I think he can do enough with Moore, with Toney (unless he injures himself immediately, which is perhaps likely), and with his ingenuity, especially with Reid in charge.
The Chiefs’ having Sneed tonight also helps.
I don’t share the consensus concerns about the KC offensive line, though the Lions’ line, I should note, is outstanding.
I recommend staying away from this contest.
Final Pick: KC -4 (0 units)
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