Originally posted July 7 2023 at 21:59.
High hopes in Charm City with the re-signing of Lamar Jackson and some big name free agent signings. Exit Greg Roman, enter Todd Monken. Known for his “air raid” style of offense where he leans on the passing game, Monken seemed like an odd choice for the Ravens offense; and I’m going to tell you why.
Let’s look at Lamar Jackson, who has only gone over 3,000 yards passing once in five seasons and has just four 300 yard passing games in 70 career games played, and whose career passing yards per game is 174.4. Now I hear you all whining and yelling, “but he’s not THAT kind of QB! He’s ssssoooooooo much better than what you see stat-wise”, and that’s true, he is. But outside of ones with a light-out defense, what QBs in the modern era can you name that average under 175 yards passing per game for their career, that have won or even gone to a Super Bowl?
You sign free agent Odell Beckham, Jr., who has had some reoccurring injuries and is in his golden years. You draft Zay Flowers out of perennial powerhouse NCAAF school Boston College *scoff scoff chortle* who is 5’9″. You have Rashod Bateman whose foot doesn’t seem like it’s ever going to heal. Only bright spot on this team is Mark Andrews, a top 5 TE in the league. Doesn’t look like a great recipe for a Monken “air raid” blue plate special.
Lamar has attempted 40+ passes in four games (43 three times; 41 once). He has attempted 30+ passes in 18 games out of 70. So in 30% of his games, he’s attempted 30 or more passes. Not really what bodes well for an “air raid” style offense. The question you have to ask yourself, is how far can a team with an average defense and a QB that can’t throw go? Well, when you’re looking up at Joe Burrow, probably not atop the AFC North.
FANTASY STANDPOINT — Jackson and Rushing Quarterbacks
You take Lamar in fantasy basically just for the rushing upside. You know he’s going to be QB20+ in passing yards (even worse than Sam Darnold and Baker Mayfield, *chortle*), so you take a passer as your backup QB, like Rodgers, Stafford, etc, someone who isn’t mobile. With Lamar, Fields, Murray, any of the rooks, you’re basically just wanting them to have 700-800+ rushing yards, 150 yds/game, and 25 total TDs (roughly – those aren’t etched-in-stone numbers).
You can’t even pair Lamar with anyone except Andrews, b/c that WR corps is just trash, and Lamar isn’t dumping it off when he sees daylight. (Fields is the same way, you could take DJ Moore, but not at his current ADP – he’d have to be a Round 6-7 guy, imho. Mooney is Round 10-11.)
The only real NFL rushing threat with passing upside you can pair for fantasy is Kyler Murray with Hollywood Brown and Rondale Moore. Murray’s return is a big question, so when I take him in fantasy, I make sure my QB1 bye week is at least Week 10 or later so he’s on the field and I don’t get a zero. I usually take Murray in 3 QB sets, and I only do that if the draft has taken a bad turn and people are just reaching and I need correlation.
Rookies like Young, Stroud, Richardson, we pretty much know they’re not going to be great passers this season, we’re just looking at them in round 15 and beyond as a spike week guy. Maybe they tear up the Texans D for 120 yards rushing, 2 TDs, and another 200 in the air.
Nick Zaza
You can find all of Nick Zaza’s fantasy analysis HERE.
Nick Zaza can be reached on Twitter @KingNickZaza and by email nick@cassandrafuture.com.
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